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The Poisson distribution is a statistical model used to predict the probability of a given number of events (goals) occurring in a fixed period. It’s widely used in football betting to predict match scorelines from expected goals averages.

Expected goals (xG) can be found from football statistics sites. Alternatively, you can calculate a team’s average goals scored per game from recent matches. More sophisticated models account for home advantage, opponent strength, and recent form.

The Poisson model provides a reasonable baseline for football predictions. Its main limitation is that it assumes goals are independent events, which isn’t always true (e.g., momentum effects, red cards). It works best for pre-match predictions in leagues with consistent scoring patterns.

Poisson is most commonly used for 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS) markets. It can also be adapted for Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time predictions.