Poisson Calculator
Model match outcomes and scorelines from each side's expected goals.
How to Use This Calculator
- Input the home team’s expected goals figure (derived from your own analysis or sourced xG data)
- Input the away team’s expected goals figure
- Read off the computed probabilities for home win, draw, away win, over/under 2.5, and BTTS
- Reference the scoreline probability grid to evaluate specific correct-score outcomes
Formula
Poisson Probability: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
Where λ = expected goals, k = actual goals scored
Scoreline Probability = P(Home = h) × P(Away = a)
Assumes home and away goals are independent events.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the Poisson distribution applied to betting?
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model that estimates the probability of a discrete number of events (goals) occurring within a fixed interval. In football betting it is commonly applied to derive likely match scorelines from average expected-goals inputs.
Where do I source expected goals values?
Expected goals (xG) figures are available from football statistics providers. Alternatively, compute a team’s mean goals scored per fixture from recent results. More advanced models additionally factor in home advantage, opponent strength, and current form.
What level of accuracy does the Poisson model deliver?
The Poisson model gives a solid baseline for football forecasting. Its principal weakness is the assumption that goals are independent events, which does not always hold (for example, momentum swings or red cards). It performs best for pre-match forecasts in leagues with stable scoring patterns.
Which markets is the Poisson model suited to?
Poisson is most often applied to 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS) markets. It can additionally be adapted to Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time forecasts.